Optimistic post-coronavirus world
The first, optimistic option implies that countries
In an optimistic scenario, all countries will cope withdifficult current situation. Northern - more wealthy and advanced - states will develop a successful recovery plan. Developing countries, third world countries will receive support, which will be enough for recovery. Young people will help rebuild countries and apply new skills and technologies for the older generation. This will be especially important if the whole world has to isolate itself again and use technology more often.
The scientific community will gain new experience, thanksto which the defenselessness of mankind before the new type of coronavirus will no longer be repeated. The vaccine, the United Nations hopes, will be available within nine months. In addition, it will be distributed as a general, will become a new “folk vaccine”, accessible to absolutely everyone.
If this happens and the economy graduallywill recover, we will be able to return to normal life within two to three years. The governments of different countries will also be able to draw appropriate conclusions from the current situation. In the future, if the world is again threatened by a deadly virus, which, moreover, is easily spreading, officials, politicians and departments will be ready for this. They will already have the relevant experience, and they will not allow such a rapid and widespread spread of an infection like COVID-19.
The same goes for people.The rules of hygiene, which sometimes had to be re-taught to people, will become commonplace for society. Media personalities will no longer have to “teach us to wash our hands.” The experience of social distancing that helped limit the spread of infection will develop into respect for a person's personal boundaries in public places. Being locked up with families and loved ones in self-isolation, we will learn to coexist and communicate with them.
Pessimistic version of the post-coronavirus world
What should be considered if we are talking about a pessimistic scenario?
The pandemic has led to serious inequalities aswithin countries and between them. The world's shortcomings have become apparent - not just in the face of health threats. Humanity's unsustainable response to the climate crisis, cyber challenges and the risks of proliferation of nuclear weapons materials have become aggravating factors. From COVID-19 to climate change, from injustice between ethnic groups to increasing inequality, people are now in a world of anxiety.
In addition, people around the world are losing confidence in political institutions.
The situation is aggravated by many otherhumanitarian crises: conflicts that continue or even intensify; record numbers of people forced to flee their homes; dangerous swarms of locusts in Africa and South Asia; the threat of drought in South Africa and Central America. And all this in a state of growing geopolitical tension.
Faced with these weaknesses, world leaders should be modest and recognize the tremendous importance of solidarity and cooperation, says the UN Secretary General.
No one can predict what to expect inthe future, but the pessimistic option is quite possible if the states do not coordinate actions, Guterres believes. In his opinion, more and more outbreaks of the virus will occur, and the situation in developing countries will worsen. It is also possible that work on the vaccine will be delayed or fierce competition will begin for it, and it will go to countries that have more economic opportunities.
More and more new outbreaks of the virus will arise; the situation with a new type of coronavirus will only be the beginning. The situation in developing countries will worsen significantly.
As for science and medicine - maybe workover the vaccine drag on for a long time. And, worst of all, fierce competition will begin for the rescue vaccine. Only countries that have economic and other resources to provide the population with the vaccine and, in fact, its invention, can get the medicine. In this case, humanity will witness growing segregation, populism and xenophobia.
As a result, each country will live on its own, andworld leaders will become unable to organize common and centralized management to solve global problems that will affect all states.
As a result, people will experience global depression. And it will last at least five to seven years before a “new normality” is formed and awareness of the new reality comes.
So what awaits us?
According to the UN Secretary General, it’s now problematic for suresay what direction the world is taking. And yet he calls for preparation for the worst. The pandemic showed us where to move, the main thing is to do it together.
A pandemic, however terrible, shouldbecome an awakening calling on all political leaders to understand that approaches to solving problems must change and that separation is a danger to everyone.
This understanding can lead to the fact that peoplerealize: the only way to cope with global difficulties is to create more reliable global governance bodies with international cooperation.
Humanity cannot simply return to the models that created the current crisis. The world must be restored with the help of more stable, inclusive, equal societies and economies.
The pandemic made us think about communicationsbetween countries. Today's international cooperation lacks ambition and power - some of the influential bodies show little initiative or are not ready to act at all, the UN Secretary General emphasizes.
The world needs multilateral cooperation, inwhich the UN and its agencies and organizations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, regional organizations such as the African Union and the European Union, trade organizations and others interact more closely and work more efficiently.
Political Leaders Must Track Thisby waking up and coming together to solve world problems, strengthen the potential for global governance, provide action to multilateral institutions and join forces in solidarity to overcome the greatest test of our time.
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