Dangerous climate warming will begin in 7 years

Scientists have predicted future global warming using climate models throughout

decades. These models play an important role in understanding the Earth's climate and its likely changes. But how accurate are they?

Climate models are mathematicalmodeling of various factors that interact with each other, affecting the Earth's climate. While they are based on the best understanding of existing Earth systems, when it comes to predicting the future, uncertainties remain.

“Climate skeptics argued that forecastsglobal warming are unreliable because they depend on erroneous supercomputer models. While these criticisms are unfounded, they highlight the need for independent and different approaches to predicting future warming, ”says co-author Bruno Tremblay, professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at McGill University.

There is still a wide range of forecasts for the totaltemperature made it difficult to accurately determine the results under various mitigation scenarios. For example, if the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles, the general circulation models (GCMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict a highly likely increase in global average temperature between 1.9 and 4.5 ° C. This range is too wide.

“Our New Approach to Temperature PredictionThe earth is based on historical climate data, not theoretical ratios that are not fully reflected in GCM. Our approach allows us to estimate climate sensitivity and its uncertainty based on direct observations with small assumptions, ”explains study co-author Raphael Hebert, a former research fellow at McGill University.

In the Climate Dynamics study, scientistsintroduced a new Scaling Climate Response Function (SCRF) model for predicting Earth temperature up to 2100. Based on historical data, it reduces forecast uncertainty by about half compared to the approach currently used by the IPCC. Analyzing the results, the researchers found that the dangerous warming threshold (+ 1.5 ° C) is likely to be exceeded between 2027 and 2042. This is a much narrower window than all previous estimates.

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