Hurricanes are strengthened by extracting energy from the warm ocean surface through heat flows
Between 1955 and 2019, average intensityhurricanes near Bermuda, as measured by maximum wind speeds, increased from 56 to 117 km / h, equivalent to over 9.6 km / h in a decade. At the same time, sea surface and sub-surface temperatures in the region have risen by 1.1 ° C, providing additional energy to amplify hurricanes.
The study also developed a predictorthe intensity of hurricanes passing through the Bermuda region using the average upper ocean temperature in the top 50 m.
"The approach we took mayprovide a better way to predict storm intensity in Bermuda than existing theory or operational methods alone. It may also be used in other locations in the subtropical Atlantic where there is a shallow mixed layer depth, typically north of twenty-five degrees north latitude."
Samantha Hallam, University of Southampton and National Oceanography Center
Scientists used the theory of potentialhurricane intensities, local meteorological sounding, surface and oceanic observations of hurricanes within 100 km of Bermuda over the past 65 years (including direct hits and near miss storms.
Research demonstrates great valueheat in the upper ocean compared to sea surface temperature alone to predict hurricane intensity. Preliminary tests with the recent passage of Hurricane Paulette are showing promising results that could be further developed as an additional operational tool for local forecasters.
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