Dr. Rajendran, lead author of the study, warns that the Makran subduction zone may
“Our research is a step towards understanding the dangertsunami in the northern Arabian Sea, ”explains Rajendran. "The entire northern region of the Arabian Sea, with its critical facilities, including nuclear power plants, must take this hazard into account when assessing threats."
Nuclear power plants operating alongArabian Sea include Tarapur (1,400 megawatts) in the Indian state of Maharashtra, Kaigu (expanding to 2,200 megawatts) in Karnataka and Karachi in Pakistan (also expanding to 2,200 megawatts). A huge nuclear power plant being built in Jaitapur, Maharashtra will generate 9,900 megawatts, while another project at Mithi Virdi in Gujarat may be delayed due to public protest.
Nuclear power plants are located along the coast - their enormous cooling needs can be met easily and cheaply with abundant seawater.
"Placement of nuclear reactors in areasexposed to natural disasters is not very reasonable, ”said M.V. Ramana, Chair of the Simons Department of Disarmament, Global and Human Security and Director of the Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia. “In principle, safety systems could be added to reduce the risk of accidents - for example, a very high sea wall. However, such safety systems increase the cost of nuclear power plants and make them even more uncompetitive than other methods of generating electricity. ”
All nuclear power plants are subject to seriousaccidents for purely internal reasons, but natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes and storm surges increase the likelihood of accidents, since they cause loads on the reactor that can lead to some failures and simultaneously disable one of them or other safety systems ...
Rajendran and his team began tostudy, noting that, compared to the east coast of the Indian peninsula, the tsunami hazard on the west coast has not been studied. This is despite the 8.1 magnitude earthquake that hit the Makran subduction zone in 1945.
The research draws on historical reports ofa major tsunami that struck the coast of western India in 1524. It was recorded by the Portuguese navy off Dabhol and the Gulf of Cambay and confirmed by geological data and radiocarbon dating of the seashells.
According to Rajendran, the modeling done byThe team gave results suggesting that the strong impact at Kelshi could have been caused by a magnitude 9 earthquake in the Makran subduction zone between 1508-1681. Subduction zones occur where one tectonic plate slides over another, releasing seismic energy.
According to Rajendran, the future of the mega tsunamiemerged in the Makran subduction zone, could destroy not only the coasts of Iran, Pakistan and Oman, but also the western coast of India, adding that alternative sources of earthquakes in the Arabian Sea have not yet been identified.
Such studies now serve as a warningon the risks and costs of installing nuclear power plants in seismically sensitive areas. Ten years after the 2011 disaster in Fukushima, the prefecture still has pockets of radioactive contamination, and the cost of cleaning is estimated to range from US $ 20 billion to US $ 600 billion.
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