The Apophis asteroid was first spotted by astronomers back in 2004. Soon after, researchers discovered
More recently, Tholen and his team noted that earlier researchers did not account for the Yarkovsky effect.
This effect explains the appearance of a weaka reactive impulse due to thermal radiation from the surface of the asteroid that heats up during the day and cools down at night, which gives it additional acceleration. The Yarkovsky effect explains why the number of asteroids that have reached Earth is greater than what followed from previous calculations.
Tholen and his team calculated that thisthe effect shifts Apophis so much that it causes it to drift about 170 meters per year. They then applied this knowledge to the mathematics that describes the asteroid's orbit and discovered that the drift changes its course, bringing it closer to Earth. He notes that there is no indication yet that the asteroid will collide with Earth in 2029, but 2068 is already in question.
During his speech, Tolen noted thatStudying Apophis as it passes Earth in 2029 should give scientists a much better idea of whether it poses a real threat in 2068.
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