Soils around the world contain two to three times more carbon than the atmosphere, and higher temperatures
In a new study, scientists have clarified data oncarbon cycle sensitivity and correlated with global warming data. The new study cuts the uncertainty in future climate change projections in half, experts say.
Scientists estimate that a warming of 2 ° C (higherpre-industrial level) will release 230 billion tons of carbon. This will be four times the total emissions in China and twice in the United States over the past 100 years.
“Our research excludes the most extremeforecasts, but nevertheless, assume significant losses of carbon in the soil due to climate change of only 2 ° C. And we don't even factor in carbon loss due to melting permafrost, ”explains study co-author Dr. Sarah Chadburn of the University of Exeter.
This effect is called "positive feedback" - when climate change causes side effects that contribute to further climate change, worsening the situation.
Before that, scientists did not understand how carbon in the soilwill respond to global temperature increases. Therefore, experts could not predict how this process will affect the future of the Earth's climate. To solve this problem, the researchers used a new combination of Earth System Models data. They model the climate and carbon cycle and then make predictions about climate change.
Current models assume an uncertainty of about 120 billion tonnes of carbon with an average global warming of 2 ° C. The new study reduces the margin of error to about 50 billion tonnes of carbon.
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