A method for detecting dangerous dormant volcanoes using zircons has been developed

Most active volcanoes on Earth are inactive—they haven't erupted for hundreds or even thousands of years. Usually

such volcanoes are not considered dangerous for localpopulation. A team of volcanologists from the University of Geneva (UNIGE), in collaboration with the University of Heidelberg in Germany, has developed a method that can predict the destructive potential of inactive volcanoes. Scientists used zircon, a tiny crystal found in volcanic rocks, to estimate the volume of magma in the dormant volcano.

Cathodoluminescent image of zircon crystals from the Nevado de Toluca volcano in Mexico. Credit: UNIGE / WEBER

New analysis method tested on a volcanoNevado de Toluca in Mexico. The results of the study make you nervous - up to 350 km3 of magma can be erupted by a volcano if it wakes up. This is approximately four times the amount of water stored in Lake Geneva. By the way, this is the largest lake in the Alps and the second largest lake in Central Europe.

Scientists noted that the new forecasting method is applicable to most types of volcanoes around the world.

What does it consist of?

UNIGE volcanologists have used a new approach combining zircon geochronology and thermal modeling. This helped them determine the amount of magma that the volcano could erupt.

“Zircon is a small crystal thatfound in rocks erupted by volcanoes, explains Gregor Weber, UNIGE researcher and co-author of the study. Zircon crystals contain uranium and thorium. The decay of these radioactive elements allows us to determine the date of their crystallization. In addition, zircon crystallizes only in a certain temperature range. Using these two parameters, we can determine how quickly the magma cools beneath the volcano. It's like a pot of water - the larger it is, the longer it takes to cool. We analyzed zircons erupted by Nevado de Toluca over the past 1.5 million years, thereby determining the evolution of magma temperatures over time. This information is easily converted into potential magma volume using thermal modeling."

The new approach is twice as reliable as existing methods, the scientists conclude.

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