Now in the European part of Russia the average annual temperature rises by 0.4 ℃ every 10 years. So tall
Climate warming poses a threat to manyecosystems of our country, for industry, economy, life and health of people. However, supporters of the theory of the positive effect of global warming argue that it can do more good than harm for Russia: increased yields, reduced heating costs, the weather will become more comfortable, and the navigation period on the Northern Sea Route will increase. But with each of these points, everything is not so simple.
Bad harvest forecast
One of the most frequent arguments of those who advocatefor warming, associated with agriculture: you can often find statements that an increase in temperature will significantly expand the area of cultivation of many crops - relatively speaking, sow wheat in the north and pick peaches in mid-latitudes.
This does not take into account that in the southern partcountries where the main areas of crop cultivation are concentrated, agricultural activities will be greatly hampered by drought: for example, the dry summer of 2010 killed a third, and in 2012 - a quarter of the grain harvest. Losses of farmers, agricultural holdings and the state for both periods amounted to more than 300 billion rubles. Droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others have a detrimental effect on agricultural activities: in 2019, adverse natural events forced the introduction of an emergency regime in agriculture in 19 regions of the country.
Droughts, floods, increased activityinsect pests - all this negates the benefits of lengthening the growing season. As predicted by the All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology, in 10 years the total crop in Russia may be lower by 10%. Long-term forecasts look even more bleak: in the second half of the century, the southern regions of the country, such as Krasnodar Territory, Volgograd and Rostov Regions, will lose their importance as agricultural centers due to lack of moisture. To rescue the situation, investments in new irrigation systems and drought-resistant crops will have to be huge, all of which will require huge funds.
As for the cultivation of heat-loving crops innorthern regions, this is an incredibly difficult task that requires a lot of expertise, extensive infrastructure and people who will be involved in it. And for this, huge funds will have to be invested in the transformation of agriculture.
Endless cataclysms
Natural disasters caused by globalwarming, cause damage not only to the agricultural industry, but also to human life. Over the past 20 years, the annual number of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in Russia has doubled: floods, strong winds, hail, heavy rains, droughts and floods. So, last summer, due to heavy rains in the Khabarovsk Territory, Irkutsk and Amur regions, hundreds of houses and dozens of roads went under water. Many settlements were left without transport links, residents were evacuated, many died and went missing.
The increased humidity in the northern regions leads toin particular, to the destruction of urban infrastructure. Due to condensation in the walls, the constant change of warm and cold periods, buildings come into an emergency state in less than 10 years of operation.
Finally, one of the most serious consequencesclimate warming - more frequent and larger fires. Due to drought, the likelihood of their occurrence will greatly increase, and the season when they occur will become longer.
Permafrost
Perhaps one of the most important risk factorsassociated with global warming in Russia is the melting of permafrost, whose territory now covers 63% of the country: in this zone there are many cities, roads, oil and pipelines, industrial enterprises, which were built taking into account the characteristics of the frozen ground. Its weakening endangers the entire infrastructure: piles and buildings collapse, pipes burst, dams burst, accidents occur at enterprises. According to a 2017 report by the climatic center of Roshydromet, in Norilsk, the number of houses damaged due to soil deformation was higher than in the previous 50 years. At the same time, thawing of permafrost leads to an increase in river runoff, which carries the risk of frequent floods.
Permafrost weakening poses especially great risksfor the Russian mining industry: 15% of the country’s oil and 80% of the country’s gas projects, many deposits of coal, peat, ferrous and non-ferrous metals are concentrated in this territory. Currently, due to accidents associated with soil deformation, more than 5 thousand oil spills occur annually in the permafrost zone. In Western Siberia, melting soil causes about 7.5 thousand damage to oil and gas pipelines every year, and over the past 20 years their number has increased significantly.
According to proponents of the concept of benefitglobal warming for Russia, permafrost thawing should not pose a threat to oil and gas projects, since the field infrastructure is designed for 20–30 years - a period during which, according to some experts, significant changes cannot occur. But these considerations no longer correspond to reality: now forecasts change not even over the horizon of decades, but within one or two years. Thus, the entire first half of 2020 demonstrated abnormally high temperatures: January became almost the warmest in history, and in May in Siberia it was 10 ℃ warmer than usual.
The first result of this temperature anomalyThere was a fuel spill accident in Norilsk, when one of Norilsk Nickel's tanks was damaged due to sudden shifts in the ground. This incident showed that existing forecasts and monitoring systems are no longer applicable to reality: unless we begin a large-scale modernization of all existing infrastructure and the introduction of new climate monitoring technologies, such incidents will become more frequent. Meanwhile, they hit not only the companies themselves and the environmental situation: disruption of oil and gas supplies due to interruptions in the activities of suppliers can be felt by all European countries - only through the projects of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, 30% of the gas needs of this region are met.
Mortality and migration
Among the benefits of warming are often citedreduction in heating costs. However, things are not so simple: the duration of the heating season will indeed shorten, but instead the need for air conditioning will increase - and this is a much more expensive item. In addition, hot weather negatively affects health: the risk of epidemics increases, mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases increases, especially among the elderly. Warming increases the concentration of pollen and other allergens in the air, which worsens the condition of people with asthma. So, the heat of 2010, according to the UN, was in seventh place in the ranking of the deadliest natural disasters: in Moscow during this period, the death rate jumped by 50.7%, and in the European part of the country more than 55 thousand people died from abnormal weather.
According to the World Health Organization,Climate change from 2030 to 2050 worldwide will claim about 250 thousand lives: the causes of death will be the effects of heat on the elderly, the increased incidence of malaria, diarrhea and childhood malnutrition.
In addition to the negative impact on health,Global warming will also have socio-economic consequences, and this primarily includes climate-related migration. As Roshydromet predicts, by the middle of the 21st century, climate change will force about 200 million people around the world to change their place of residence. A high percentage of internal migration is not expected in Russia, but the country will have to prepare for an influx of visitors from Central Asian countries.
Pros and cons from an economic perspective
One of the key factors affecting the climate ishuman activity. First of all, it is associated with emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which creates a kind of greenhouse above the planet's surface. The second factor is associated with excess solar energy, which has accumulated over millions of years in oil, gas, coal, peat and other fossil hydrocarbons. Now, when burned, this energy is released and additionally heats the atmosphere. In 2019, Russia ratified the Paris Agreement, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby slow down warming. The parties to the agreement aim to keep the global average temperature rise at 1.5 ° C.
But emission reduction policies carrycertain risks for the Russian economy: a tightening of environmental policy will reduce the export of fossil fuels, significantly reduce the consumption of coal and oil, thereby hitting the most important areas in the country's economy. The introduction of a carbon tax will increase the financial burden on the real sector of the economy, and the law regulating greenhouse gas emissions will increase the cost of electricity. All this, according to scientists, will slow down the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.2-0.5 percentage points by 2030, and by 2040, Russia's welfare may fall by 6-10%.
Such consequences naturally led to criticismmeasures that Russia has provided for under the Paris Agreement. But, unfortunately, the current rate of global warming is hitting the country’s economy much more painfully: according to recent estimates, Russia suffers annual losses of 50 to 150 billion rubles just because of the thawing of permafrost. Adaptation to climate change will require huge expenditures on transforming infrastructure, completely modernizing agriculture, introducing new weather monitoring technologies, providing air conditioning systems, strengthening healthcare, preventing and eliminating damage from increasingly frequent floods, landslides, and industrial disasters.
Potential benefits thatIn Russia, global warming is significantly inferior to its negative impact. All the arguments of the supporters of this process do not correspond to the real situation: neither an apparent increase in fertility in certain zones, nor a decrease in heating costs, nor a reduction in the cold climate season can outweigh the damage from these processes. Even the argument about increasing the navigation period on the Northern Sea Route does not stand up to criticism: its development requires serious infrastructure, which is practically absent now, and, accordingly, huge investments. In addition, in the future, the melting of ice may make possible navigation through the North Pole, which, according to forecasts, will become available for ship traffic in a few decades. So, China is already working on finding alternative routes in the Central Arctic. Finally, climate change could lead to worsening weather conditions in the Arctic Ocean, making navigation difficult.
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