Researchers have found that global warming will cause more and more fires in Siberia, and in the near future,
Scientists fear that a threshold may soon be crossed, beyond which small changes in temperature can lead to an exponential increase in the area burned in this region.
Fires in this part of the world in 2019 and 2020destroyed an area equivalent to almost half that burned in the previous 40 years, according to a study published in the journal Science. Scientists estimate that these fires released about 150 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere, contributing to global warming.
The territory beyond the Arctic Circle heats up at 4times faster than the rest of the planet. The researchers focused on a site that is 5.5 times the size of France. They used satellite imagery to monitor the scorched surface every year from 1982 to 2020.
In 2020, the fire spread over more than 2.5 million hectaresland and emitted as much carbon equivalent as Spain emits in a year. In 2022, the summer in Siberia was on average 3 times hotter than in 1980. In the summer in the Russian city of Verkhoyansk, the air temperature reached 38°C, which was a record for the Arctic.
Average air temperature in summer, from June toAugust, exceeded 10°C only 4 times during the study period: in 2001, 2018, 2019 and 2020. These were the years with the most fires. The team fears that this 10°C threshold will be a tipping point for the planet.
Arctic soils store a huge amountorganic carbon, most of which is found in peatlands. They are often frozen or swampy, but a warming climate is thawing and drying out the peaty soil, making major Arctic fires more likely. Fire damages frozen soil, releasing even more carbon. In some cases, it has been in ice for centuries or more.
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