On February 6, at about 4:17 am local time, a strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 occurred in the south
With the death toll now exceeding 7,000, one wonders whether the destruction of 6,000 buildings and, more importantly, the loss of life could have been predicted.
Earthquake in Turkey: why so many people died and where will the next push
The question was answered by Zoe Mildon, Associate Professor of Geosciences at the University of Plymouth, UK, whose research focuses on earthquake dynamics.
Türkiye is known as a seismically active country.However, the most recent earthquakes (those that occurred no later than the last century) have occurred along the North Anatolian Fault, which runs east-west across the north of the country. The last earthquake of this magnitude occurred in 1999, in the area of the city of Izmit. It measured 7.6 and killed 17,000 people.
Faults in Turkey. Photo: Mikenorton/Wikimedia Commons
However, in the area affectedSince the earthquake on Monday, there has never been such a strong earthquake—at least not one in the entire lifetime of the current local population.
“Earthquakes of this magnitude cannot bepredict, at least to the point of knowing when and where it will happen,” explains the scientist. He added that aftershocks (following earthquakes) always occur after large magnitude earthquakes. Therefore, more small tremors are expected in the area in the coming days and weeks.
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Cover: IHH Humanitarian Aid Foundation, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons