Scientists from the University of Nanjing, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Texas
Sustainable warming is usually estimated based onon the assumption that changes in the future will largely follow changes in the past. But now we know that this is a wrong assumption.
Mark Zelinka, LLNL atmospheric scientist
Most of the planet's surface is warming uphowever, in some regions, such as the Southern Ocean, this did not happen. The lack of warming heating contributes to the formation of low clouds above these regions, which reflect sunlight back into space and greatly cool the planet. Over time, these regions will heat up. When this happens, the low clouds will subside, allowing the Earth to absorb more sunlight and contribute to additional warming.
The team found that future warming will be roughly + 2.3 degrees: that's above pre-industrial levels. This figure exceeds the limits set in the Paris Agreement.
The results show that humanity is more likely toin total, produced enough carbon dioxide to exceed the 2 ° C threshold. As the net emissions approach zero, the researchers note, the rate of continued sustained warming will be very low. This means that if humanity can bring net emissions to almost zero in the near future, then it may take centuries for the global temperature to rise to two degrees.
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