When the eruption occurs
To improve our chances of predicting an eruption, scientists
For example, researchers from StanfordUniversity analyzed the location of olivine crystals that froze in lava after the eruption of Mount Kilauea. So scientists were able to find out the details of the processes taking place in the bowels of the earth - this information will help predict future eruptions.
Scientists explained that they tried to createan algorithm for predicting volcanic eruptions. However, many of the processes that might suggest this take place deep underground in lava tubes. After an eruption, any underground markers that might give clues to the explorers are destroyed in almost all cases.
- Eruption power
Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California have found that caldera collapse increases the power of volcanic eruptions.
To find out what affects the powereruptions, the authors of the new work studied the eruption of the Hawaiian volcano Kilauea in 2018: it was the largest in the last 200 years of the history of its eruptions.
When a rock falls, it creates pressure inmagma chambers. Therefore, during the eruption of Kilauea, the flow of magma to distant vents increased, as well as the total volume of the eruption. A similar algorithm works for other volcanoes.
- Eruption prediction
The same eruption of volcano Kilauea in Hawaii in2018 helped scientists create a new system for predicting the potential danger of future eruptions. The researchers used early indicators of magma viscosity.
The properties of magma inside a volcano affect howan eruption will occur. In particular, the viscosity of molten rock is a major factor in how dangerous an eruption will be to nearby communities.
Studying what happened in the lower part of the EasternKilauea Rift Zone in 2018, researchers determined that the direction of movement of faults in the lower East Rift Zone before and during a volcanic eruption can be used to estimate the viscosity of rising magma. This will allow disaster monitoring experts to better anticipate eruptions of volcanoes like Kilauea , and develop response strategies in advance.
Is it possible to predict an earthquake
Like any other disaster: yes and no.
- Earthquake prediction
At the end of January 2021, it became known thatScientists have created a new system for predicting the likelihood and impact of earthquakes on the entire region: it was developed by a team of researchers in collaboration with SCEC.
New study presents resultsthe prototype of the Rate-State earthquake simulator, or RSQSim: it simulates 80 thousand years of seismic history of California. He can calculate the strength of the earthquake that will happen in the future.
The results of the work are based on historyearthquakes and show realistic predictions for the future. The developers say the new approach improves the ability to accurately determine how strong an earthquake might hit a given location, which could help developers plan building heights.
- Quick notification of what happened
At the end of May 2021, scientists from the United States presented a new method for measuring the level of potential earthquakes using a GPS system. It can save hundreds of thousands of people.
The researchers explained that the global systemGPS-based earthquake monitoring can provide more timely and accurate warning of powerful earthquakes than traditional seismic networks. It can also reduce the frequency of false alerts.
According to study lead author TimothyMelbourne, professor of geology at Central Washington University, a GPS-based detection system can provide earlier and more accurate alerts than traditional seismic sensors installed in tectonically active regions. They may fail due to a burst of data when seismic waves first appear.
Seismologists usually wait for the wavesspread further from the center, and evaluate the earthquake from afar. But in some cases, in the face of the threat of highly magnetic earthquakes and potentially devastating tsunamis that can kill thousands of people, this is not possible.
How to know in advance about a tsunami or flood
- The likelihood of flooding
The new mathematical model shows how much a city is producing greenhouse gases and the likelihood of flooding.
Previous research has shown that urban development affects rainfall. There is an urban heat island effect: the difference between the temperature in the city and the surrounding countryside.
As the city grows, the temperature rises.The new heat, heat, energizes the air and causes it to rise faster, condense, precipitate and rain over the city or downwind. Thus, the amount of precipitation that the city receives is either increasing or decreasing.
However, scientists decided to take into account also the regionalclimate simulations targeting the continental United States to show the offsetting effects between urban development and greenhouse gas emissions on extreme precipitation.
Based on the results of work, in the largest cities of the USAthe amount of precipitation will increase. The findings of the study show an urgent need for cities to develop policies to deal with floods that threaten city resilience and infrastructure investment.
- Satellite predictions
Американские специалисты, разработавшие новый method of predicting floods using the GRACE satellites measuring the Earth's gravity, note that if there is a lot of liquid, then the soil with heavy rainfall will not be able to absorb them. In turn, this can provoke flooding.
After scientists from CaliforniaThe university studied data obtained from satellites for 2011, they found that, thanks to their method, they would have been able to predict the flood of the Missouri River 5 months before it started. Meanwhile, the National Meteorological Service then predicted a possible flood only a month before it began.
- Underwater drones against the tsunami
Researchers at the University of Athens are developing underwater drones that track radiation levels in the ocean, which will help create an early warning system for tsunami.
It is known that on land increased seismicactivity leads to the release of radon, a natural radioactive gas, into the soil. This happens a few days before the earthquakes. Thus, a burst of radioactivity on the seabed will predict imminent underwater earthquakes. The only problem is that we do not yet know how the level of radiation on the seabed changes, and baseline readings are required to detect the outbursts.
Is it possible to predict a typhoon, hurricane or tornado
British scientists first discovered howTornadoes form on cold atmospheric fronts. This will allow meteorologists to predict them with greater accuracy and warn the population about the danger in advance.
There are still no forecasting methodstornadoes that occur on a cold atmospheric front, and this is how about 40% of all tornadoes are formed. Therefore, scientists are looking for ways to predict their occurrence in order to better protect people from such natural phenomena. And English meteorologists managed to find a way.
The scientists analyzed tornado reports from the Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO), radar images and the geographic location of 114 weather events over a 35-year period.
They determined which cold fronts couldcause one tornado, some - several, and some - none. The study found that most tornadoes form when an area of strong winds approaches a front from the cold side. Because of this, the front bends and a kind of bulge is obtained in it, which increases the contrast in wind speed and direction.
Там, где этот контраст со временем увеличивается, the tornado is more likely to "spin" along the front. Sometimes in this situation, relatively large outbreaks of tornadoes can occur. Forecasters can recognize these weather conditions and alert the public.
- Opponents of the theory of predicting air disasters
However, there is an opinion that such disastersit is almost impossible to predict. Academician Igor Mokhov, director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences and professor at MIPT and Moscow State University, said that the general patterns of seasonal activity of tropical cyclones, storms and hurricanes are known, although the variations from year to year are large.
And here is the uncertainty of predicting the timingthe formation of the first tropical hurricanes, their number, intensity and trajectories in oceanic basins in specific years is very large. This is due to the significant interannual variability of regional atmospheric and oceanic processes, and the formation of tropical hurricanes depends on a number of factors.
However, there are certainpatterns that allow making prognostic assessments. For example, the frequency and power of Pacific typhoon hurricanes depends on the phase of the El Niño climate phenomenon.
In the years of El Niño development, in general, the formation of typhoons in the northwestern Pacific is less likely, which can reach the shores of Japan and the Russian Far East.
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