The migrant crisis has strained relations between the two countries to the breaking point.
Table of contents
- Ground troops
- Tanks
- Light armored vehicles
- Artillery
- Air Force and Air Defense
- According to the results
The conflict between Minsk and Warsaw escalates with eachin the afternoon and reached such an extent that the Western press is talking about the transfer of military coalition NATO. And we are even talking about six hundred fighters of the elite division of the British army - the SAS regiment. And these guys are clearly not sent to stand and stupidly at the fence opposite migrants with trunks and babies, not that calico.
Polish leadership is not sluggish and sleepyEuropeans from the more well-fed countries of the European Union, there are enough hotheads there, and they are no less frostbitten than "but father". In our article, we will try to compare the military potential of both sides and think about the possible outcome of a hypothetical war between the two countries, even if it sounds rather outlandish.
General Skshipczak the most determined hawk in the Polish Ministry of Defense
On the eve of the Polish General Waldemar Skshipchak(you can't imagine a more Polish name) declared that 3 days would be enough for Poland to capture all of Belarus. Let's count and compare to what extent the general is lying, or his words carry weight (of course, without calculating the inclusion of NATO and Russia in the conflict).
Ground troops
Both powers are not maritime powers, and where else can they fight if not on land.That's right, tanks, light armored vehicles, artillery, infantry and army aviation – helicopters (or -) drones.
Tanks
Poland, despite the fact that it has long been a member of NATO, is still inIt is largely equipped with Soviet weapons, which it itself is gradually modernizing, but as for the tanks, they do not skimp here - at the heart of the Polish strike force are the German Leopards-2.
Leopard 2PL- created specifically for the needs of the Polish army, Leopard 2 A4, and in total, in various modifications of similar vehicles, they have about 250 units.
They will be opposed by over 500 T-72 tanks, among which there are no more than 20 later modifications of the T-72B3 type.
Leopard 2PL
The gap between generations is already playing a role.The superiority of German cats over the outdated Soviet car in almost everything - first of all, driving performance (speed and maneuverability), security, and most importantly - the fire control system, pumped by thermal imagers and full digitalization. Leopards can certainly hit targets on the move over uneven terrain: given the excellent stabilization of the 120mm cannon, the target is doomed.
Here, numerical superiority will not give the Belarusians anything, the Poles would not even have to connect their remnants of the modernized seventy-two.
Light armored vehicles
In the planArmored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, perhaps, parity, based on both sides on1000 obsolete Soviet BMPs, but the nuance is that Belarus has BMP-2, and Poland has BMP-1, which were considered obsolete even by the standards of the Soviet army. The BMP-1 has a rather weak 73-mm cannon, and the archaic Malyutka ATGM.
Why do the Poles have so many BMP-1s?Bwp, and stamped so much that it's not in a hurry yetabandon them, although it's high time. It lags behind the BMP-2, especially the later versions, although the Poles experiment a lot on this base. It is especially lagging behind in the variability of anti-tank missiles (yes, there is still Baby).
one of the variants of the BMP Badger
PGZ / NCBR
Only in September 2021, the Poles presented the first serious update of their infantry fighting vehicle, but even then, by and large, we are talking about reaching the standards of the BMP-2.Own new-generation infantry fighting vehicleBorsukIt's still on trial, and it's too early to talk about it seriously.
ByArmored personnel carrier, Belarus is also ahead, 650 vehicles from BTR-70 to BTR-82A, which began arriving in the country in September from the Russian Federation. Against them, Poland will give a little more than 500 modificationsWolverine, their armored personnel carriers based on the Finnish wheeledarmored chassis. Rossomakh's armor barely complies with the STANAG-3 standard, which means that it can only withstand a 12.7 mm caliber at distances over 200 meters.
Rosomak in Iraq
The combat equipment of the Polish Wolverine is identicalBTR-82A, and in the later version Scipio is generally Russian (produced in Slovakia under license). True, it was planned to re-equip them under the Spike LR ATGM, but how many vehicles ended up equipped with them is unknown.
By armored vehiclesit’s hard to compare, the Poles have a thick hodgepodge ofHumveethe first generations, before the Ukrainian Watches, and from our own developmentsScorpio-3based on Daewoo Honker for contingents in Iraq and Afghanistan (about 90 units). Ultimately, the main reconnaissance and patrol assets areBRDM-2(which the Belarusians use as mobile chassis for the Konkurs ATGM) in the amount of 237 pieces.
Belarusian Volat V1
bte.by
Belarusian fleet of armored vehiclesmodest, but nevertheless represented by quite serious own developments likeVolat V1, andChinese variations of Humvee, and more serious cars that claim the statusMRAP... Both sides do not greatly appreciate current trends in the development or procurement of armored cars of this standard.
Artillery
If Belarus is equipped with classic ones for the Russian Federationartillery systems still of the Soviet type (however, quite relevant today), then Poland gradually updated an almost similar fleet. The Poles, of course, have 362 unitsSAU Carnation, but gradually quite popular Czechoslovakian ones were also purchasedSPG Dana152 mm, which not long ago fought in Karabakh on the side of the Azerbaijanis.
Ahs krab
From our own developments -Ahs krab, an analogue of the American self-propelled guns M-109 with a howitzerNATO standard 155 mm. Although there is not so much of its own, the chassis of the South Korean K9 Thunder self-propelled guns is at the heart of the chassis, and the turret system is from the British AS-90 howitzer. But it was important for the Poles to master the production themselves, thus it was planned to create 5 artillery divisions with 24 Crabs each, however, so far it was possible to more or less equip three divisions of about 72 self-propelled guns.
The Belarusians with heavy self-propelled guns have everything much more serious, 125 self-propelled howitzersAcacia, 72 self-propelled gun2C5 Hyacinth, and the list is completed by 12 units already RussianACS Msta-S. It’s the same with MLRS, the Poles have only light analoguesBM-21 Grad, both Soviet-style and Polish and Czech variations on the theme, about 200 units. Belarusian arms are longer, their Gradov park is expanded36 MLRS Hurricane, And40 Tornado, in addition, the Syabrs are gradually mastering their own heavyMLRS Polonaise, similar to Tornado. So far, the number is only less than a dozen, but for the Belarusian military-industrial complex this is not a joke either.
Russian hyacinths at work
Air Force and Air Defense
In terms of aviation and countermeasures, there is a balance. The slight superiority of Polish air assets is offset by 16 divisionsS-300PAndS-300V, and to them 4 more divisionsSAM Bukand 6 divisionsSAM Osa. Among high-altitude air defense systems, Poland has only 20 obsolete installationsSAM Cube(predecessor of Bukov), that there are approximately 2 divisions that are planned to be replaced next year, and the rest is represented by the same divisionsSAM Osaand light missile and cannon ZSUs and air defense systems to cover only ground units.
Equipping the Poles with American Patriot systems are still only plans.
Launcher SAM Cube
To the Soviet parkMiG-29the Poles added 48 American ones to 32 carsF-16, and in addition we bought 32 more piecesF-35, which is no longer a joke. It’s funny, but at the same time the Poles have almost no attack army aviation, that is, helicopters - the entire fleet consists of transport and multi-purpose vehicles likeMi-8/17or similarPZL W-3 Sokół.
Belarusians will answer them 32MiG-29, and about 16Su-30SM. The helicopter fleet is very modest, only 20 multi-purpose unitsMi-8(including high-altitude MTV-5), but on the other hand about 12Mi-24, which at the same time are unlikely to make the weather, since the Poles are doing pretty well with small-radius anti-aircraft systems.
Su-30SM
It is noteworthy that neither one nor the other is particularly confused by the so popular todayUAV, with only a small number of reconnaissance light vehicles.
According to the results
- The Poles have a numerical advantage(105 thousand military versus 50 thousand.in Belarus, with a similar number of reservists), but despite this, it is difficult to talk about their superiority, judging by their equipment. The transition period from a Soviet-style army, typical of the Eastern bloc, to a NATO-standard army was very indecently delayed. The Polish infantry cannot even give up the AK yet, and the armaments have a noticeable hodgepodge of systems from very different doctrines and weapons schools, which will complicate both their management and maintenance.
- By and large, the Belarusian army is not worse equipped, and is a demo version of the Russian army,andCertainlymore homogeneous... We can say that the military conflicttoday Poland still needs less, because in 5-10 years it could be completely rebuilt and re-equipped with the latest models, and, even being inferior in the number of military equipment, surpass its eastern neighbor in quality.
belvpo.com
Our comparison of the armed forces of these two countriesalmost comic (not a joke, alas, the situation is being played out) - everyone understands perfectly well that a conflict between these countries is hardly possible without the involvement of NATO and the Russian Federation, and this allows us to count on the fact that the military press services of both countries will only show off in front of journalists. And what do you think?
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