Mathematical Model Suggests Optimal COVID-19 Treatment Strategies

Researchers from Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) in collaboration with researchers from the hospital

Brigham and Women's Hospital, and the University of Cyprus have created a mathematical model that includesinformation on the known infectious mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2. 

Our model predicts that antiviral and anti-inflammatory drugs, which were first used to treat COVID-19, couldhave limited efficacy depending on the stage of disease progression. 

Rakesh K. Jain, PhD, is from the Edwin L. Steele Laboratory in the Department of Radiation Oncology at MGH and Harvard Medical School (HMS).

Jain and his colleagues found that everyoneIn patients, the viral load (the level of SARS-CoV-2 particles in the bloodstream) increases during early lung infection, but later no pattern could be identified: starting from the 5th day, the course of the disease depends on the levels of key immunity. 

In patients younger than 35 years of age who have healthyimmune system, there is a steady recruitment of T cells, accompanied by a decrease in viral load. All these processes lead to a decrease in the risk of blood clots and the restoration of oxygen levels in the lung tissues: these patients tend to recover.

But people with a higher level of inflammation during infection, these can be patients with diabetes, obesity or high blood pressure, carry the infection more severely.

Based on their findings, Jain and colleaguesHeparin, a drug that prevents blood clots, is suggested for optimal treatment of elderly patients. And also to use a modifying drug (checkpoint inhibitor) in the early stages of the disease and the anti-inflammatory drug dexamethasone in the later stages.

In patients with obesity, diabetes or highblood pressure, they suggest using drugs that specifically target substances that promote inflammation (cytokines such as interleukin-6), as well as drugs that can suppress the renin-angiotensin system (the main mechanism for controlling blood pressure in the body). 

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