There will be enough Internet for everyone, the transition to 5G and 6G will slow down, and import substitution will not help - this is what they think
What's happening?
It became known that the Ministry of Digital Development recommended to everyonemobile operators that serve Russian customers to limit unlimited Internet, as well as reduce the amount of traffic consumed by users.
Representatives of the department explained this decision by the current situation: according to them, it is not clear now how the supply of telecommunications equipment will continue due to sanctions.
It is assumed that if traffic is reduced, then allthe network will be evenly loaded and it will continue to function. Experts agree that the problem with the shortage of equipment cannot be solved now. Therefore, the only way out is to develop our own equipment, but the level of technology development in Russia does not yet allow this. Denis Kuskov from TelecomDaily thinks so.
What will happen to operators and users?
According to the founder of the Staff-Hub agency, AndreyLyadkova, all services that require the latest server equipment will become more expensive due to restrictions on the import of high-tech devices, chips and processors.
He noted that for mobile operators the lawYarovoy continues to operate, which means they still need to store a significant amount of data. There is no serious slowdown yet, Lyadkov noted, but it is obvious that the pace of development of coverage and capacity is seriously limited. Since the base station infrastructure was built on the basis of equipment from Nokia and Ericsson, and they joined the sanctions, he recalled.
Internet will slow down?
“Users should fundamentally not noticethat «limited» Internet, which is now provided. It still has quite significant volumes and is quite sufficient for personal use. This problem will affect a very small cross-section of people,” says Lyadkov.
Dmitry Pankrushev, Business Development Directorgroup of companies red_mad_robot added that mobile communications will become more expensive. In his opinion, this is due to the fact that the operators’ infrastructure consists entirely of foreign components. On the other hand, he confirmed that the network capacity has not changed.
“There are cases when operators slow down individualservices, but this is rather a counteraction to the measures taken. Sanctions will affect the availability of Internet resources, especially foreign ones, but not the speed of the Internet in general. It will not be possible to grow here soon - this requires equipment that is practically not available in Russia in the field of cellular communication technologies,” said Pankrushev.
How will the operators solve the problem?
Limitations in infrastructure development are more of a problem than a point of growth, especially in the short and medium term, Lyadkov believes.
“A global structural crisis is evident, it isconcerns not only telecom, but almost all spheres of modern realities. Almost every product has imported components. In the long term, this may turn out to be a point of growth, but now there is a lot of uncertainty in view of the significant number of political decisions, sometimes not rational, that businesses have to adapt to,” he said.
Lyadkov noted that strategically, import substitution is a good thing, but it will take an extremely long time.
According to Pankrushev, in the near future operators will be engaged in “reassembling” the current cellular communications architecture in order to give users the maximum in the current situation.
“Speeches about scaling and innovatinguntil it goes. This is a complex task - support is also needed from the legislative bloc, certain concessions for telecom operators. In any case, solving this problem will become one of the key tasks of business and the state, because telecom is the basis for all future innovations,” Pankrushev is sure.
What's next for us?
So far, it is difficult to predict how the situation will be resolved. Experts note that Russia's transition to 6G will slow down, as will support for 5G networks that have just begun to scale.
The costs of telecom operators for maintaining the infrastructure will increase, which will affect the growth in the cost of tariffs for end users.
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