Named the location of the next strongest earthquake

Researchers from New Zealand have discovered an unusual factor that may influence the scale

the next devastating earthquake in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone. We are talking about fossils of tiny marine organisms that lived tens of millions of years ago.

A thorough study of the subduction zone is necessary toaccurate prediction of earthquakes. But its location in the sea and its depth make this process difficult. In the new study, scientists led by Dr Caroline Boulton from the University of Wellington examined a rocky cliff on the Hungaroa Fault, which lies on the edges of the Hikurangi Subduction Zone.

Tectonic setting of the Hikuranga subduction boundary and the Hungaroa fault zone in Tora. Illustration: DOI: 10.1016/j.lithos.2022.106831

They paid special attention to the layers of limestone,mudstone and siltstone on a bluff 35 km southeast of Martinborough. The rocks were used as an indicator of what was happening in a marine subduction zone. They appeared between 35 and 65 million years ago.

Researchers have discovered that these rocks contain a large amount ofamount of calcite. It is a common carbonate mineral that, in this case, is left over from ancient single-celled marine organisms, mostly foraminifera such as plankton. Calcite deposits from long-dead tiny marine organisms may influence the mechanical interaction of two huge tectonic plates, the scientists noted.

If calcite dissolves in large enoughquantities, it will weaken the rift. Because of this, the two tectonic plates can slide gently without causing noticeable earthquakes on the surface. However, if the rocks do not dissolve, the fault line will become blocked and the stored energy will eventually be released in the form of a major earthquake. There is a 26% chance of this happening within the next 50 years at the Hikurangi Subduction Zone in New Zealand. Scientists came to this conclusion.

The Hikurangi subduction zone is the largesta fault on the New Zealand plate boundary, running off the east coast of the North Island, where two plates meet. This is where the Pacific Plate subducts under the Australian Plate. The region can experience strong earthquakes, with a magnitude greater than magnitude 8 event considered possible on record.

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Cover photo: Alan Levine