New model more accurately predicts disease jumps during a pandemic

The new model was used to predict the increase in incidence in Italy. Before this, scientists

took into account deviations in the level of distributioninfections. Therefore, they assumed that the jump in the number of infected people comes with a delay. But, according to the results of the study, in order to accurately determine the moment of infectious growth, one cannot rely only on average values. Fluctuations in infection rates and recovery rates must be taken into account.

Forecasting pandemic developments is alwayswas accompanied by difficulties, but, as the creators of the model say, since the advent of COVID-19, the quality of calculations has decreased significantly. Often the peak of the disease occurred earlier than planned. There are many reasons for this inaccuracy: lack of data and expertise, selective reporting of information and simple errors.

An important parameter in drawing up the trajectory along which the epidemic should develop was the basic reproduction index R0. It shows the number of people that one person can infect.

“Even if the average infection rate from onea person lies below one, we can still predict the onset of a new wave of a pandemic due to fluctuations in parameters, ”said one of the authors of the study, Maxens Harutkin.