The new model was used to predict the increase in incidence in Italy. Before this, scientists
Forecasting pandemic developments is alwayswas accompanied by difficulties, but, as the creators of the model say, since the advent of COVID-19, the quality of calculations has decreased significantly. Often the peak of the disease occurred earlier than planned. There are many reasons for this inaccuracy: lack of data and expertise, selective reporting of information and simple errors.
An important parameter in drawing up the trajectory along which the epidemic should develop was the basic reproduction index R0. It shows the number of people that one person can infect.
“Even if the average infection rate from onea person lies below one, we can still predict the onset of a new wave of a pandemic due to fluctuations in parameters, ”said one of the authors of the study, Maxens Harutkin.