February 6 around 1 a.m. GMT (4 a.m. local time) in southeastern Turkey and Syria
Earthquake in Turkey: could it have been predicted
The consequences of the earthquake are not yet possibleestimate, as the removal of rubble continues, but it is already known that the total number of deaths is at least 35 thousand people. Turkey's emergency management said that by the morning of February 13, 31,643 people had been confirmed dead as victims of the earthquake. In Syria, 3,581 deaths are reported.
Epicenter of the earthquake in Turkey and Syria in 2023. On the left is the first earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8, on the right is the second with a magnitude of 7.7. Images: USGC
Immediately after the catastrophe, the Turkish authorities andThe International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, on behalf of the Syrian Republic, has activated the International Charter on Space and Major Disasters. Satellite data from the affected areas from various space programs has been provided to help determine the extent of the disaster and help rescuers select targets.
International Charter on Space and Major Disasters
The Charter is an international agreement thatbrings together space agencies from around the world to share satellite observations and coordinate disaster management. The Charter was developed and became its first members by the European and French Space Agency in 1999. Since 2000, other countries that use their own Earth observation satellites have joined the project.
By 2022, 17space agencies, which have 270 Earth-probing satellites at their disposal. In addition to the countries of the European Union, the Charter members represent Canada, the USA, Japan, South Korea, China, Brazil, Bolivia and the United Arab Emirates. Roscosmos joined the agreement in 2013.
Representatives can activate the Charteremergency departments and ministries of user countries (currently 131) or UN organizations. In such a situation, space agency experts analyze possible resources, if necessary, change the observation programs in order to quickly obtain and provide the authorities of the country affected by a natural disaster with satellite images of the desired region in high detail.
For example, after the disaster in Turkey and Syriaspace agencies have provided more than 350 different images of the affected areas. They are used to create damage and situation maps to help assess hazards and manage relief, rescue and evacuation activities.
Examples of destruction observed from satellites. Snapshots of objects in the city of Kahramanmaras in the top row and Islahie in the bottom row. Images: Copernicus, International Charter
An analysis based on satellite observations showed thatthat almost 4 million people affected by earthquakes live in the area of potential risk, damage to more than 4 thousand buildings and 72 km of various roads was confirmed.
Geological consequences of the earthquake
In addition to urgent goals aimed at analyzingdamage, satellites also investigate more global consequences that do not have an immediate impact, but may affect later. For example, the earthquake in Turkey and Syria in the coastal city of Iskenderun caused significant ground subsidence, which has already led to flooding, while at the same time, many hillsides across the country were at serious risk of landslides.
To analyze these risks, researchers use"interferometry" to compare images taken before and after an earthquake. Radar images taken by satellites after the disaster show the current terrain, archival data - how it looked before. Based on such changes, researchers can create an "interferogram" - a colorful interference (or interference) pattern - and quantify the displacement of the surface.
Interferogram showing the change in relief between two observations - before and after the earthquake. Image: DLR
Interferogram based on pictures takensatellite Sentinel-1 on January 28 and February 9, shows a large-scale deformation between the cities of Kahramanmarash and Antakya. This, scientists believe, indicates that during the first earthquake there was a rupture of the East Anatolian fault. In addition, satellite observations show movements of several meters on the Earth's surface.
Such pixel displacement maps from satellitesThe Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 are extremely useful for pinpointing the location of earthquake surface breaks, measuring surface shear, and assessing damage distribution, which are critical to better understanding this disaster.
Ziyadin Çakir, researcher from the Department of Geology, Istanbul Technical University,
The researchers note that the analysis of the identifiedchanges in the Earth's surface will help to better understand the nature of the current earthquake, assess potential new hazards and identify regions with maximum risks in the future.
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