Scientists have long debated the maximum possible age of a person. In previous studies, scientists
Now the authors of a new study say thatfound evidence that the longevity record will be broken within the next four decades. It is noteworthy that scientists did not establish the maximum possible age to which people can live, but used a mathematical model. The goal is to predict what mortality trends might look like in the coming years. However, not everyone agrees with the team's conclusions, experts told Live Science.
What is the new research about?
Scientists analyzed data on the mortality of hundredsmillions of people in 19 countries born between the 1700s and the late 1900s, up to 1969. They then used this information to predict the ages people might reach in the future.
According to the researchers' model, the levelmortality should rise exponentially after age 50 and then level off at very old age. Scientists believe that any decrease in mortality rates at younger ages will be accompanied by an accelerating increase with age. This way “the age limit was maintained,” the researchers write.
The researchers stated that this is typical for thosepeople who were born before 1900. However, mortality trends for people born between 1910 and 1950 appear to be different. This group reached the aging plateau at an older age than the pre-1900s group. In addition, scientists did not observe sudden spikes in mortality in old age that accompany the decline in mortality observed among younger people. Therefore, scientists have made an unequivocal conclusion: we have not reached the maximum duration of human life.
How long will people live under the new model?
“We predict that in mostIn the countries we studied, the maximum age will increase sharply in the future. This will lead to longevity records being broken in the next 40 years or so,” the study authors explain.
According to scientists' model, the oldest Japanese woman,who was born in 1919 has at least a 50% chance of living to age 122 or longer. A resident of the “Land of the Rising Sun” born in 1940 or later has a 50 percent chance of living to be 130 years old. The model roughly covered the next 50 years and did not predict that anyone in any country would exceed 150 years of age during that time.
What's the problem?
However, the model has a serious limitation:it does not take into account the biology of aging. In other words, when predicting who has a good chance of living to age 122, the algorithm “doesn’t take into account” the fact that people’s cells age over time and become more prone to age-related diseases, in particular oncological It also doesn't take into account how advances in the medical field could increase human life expectancy in the coming years.
“This demographic analysis is quite interesting.We have long believed that answers to questions about when and how aging stops are best sought through studies with large cohorts of animals maintained under stable laboratory conditions,” explain Michael Rose and Lawrence Mueller, professors at the University of California, California. Irvine. They did not participate in the study and shared their findings with Live Science.
“Lifespan is a biological"It's not a mathematical phenomenon," added Stuart Jay Olshanky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois at Chicago who was not involved in the study.
Scientist's answer
David McCarthy, Associate Professor of Risk Managementand Insurance at the University of Georgia and the author of the study, accepts these limitations, but he has something to answer. “The simple model we used fits historical mortality data very well,” the scientist said. He believes it can still provide useful insight into future mortality patterns. Whether this is so, time will tell.
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Photos in the text and on the cover are paid, resource: ru.freepik.com
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