The Arctic Ocean will remain without ice in 20 years

The Arctic Ocean may become ice-free in summer in the next 20 years due to warming in

tropical pacific along withanthropogenic impact. Computer models predict: climate change will lead to the fact that in summer, by the middle of this century, there will be almost no sea ice in the Arctic, if human greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced.

"Trajectory of temperature fluctuations and ice meltingis that the ocean will be free of ice in summer, but there is uncertainty about when this will happen, ”said James Screen, Associate Professor at the University of Exeter, UK

Researchers use different climaticmodels to predict when the first ice-free Arctic September will occur. According to the forecasts of most models, in the middle of this century will be less than 1 million square meters. km of sea ice, but predictions about when this will happen vary within 20 years due to natural climate fluctuations.

The climate model used in the newThe study predicts an ice-free Arctic summer from 2030–2050 if greenhouse gases continue to grow. By taking into account the long warming phase in the tropical Pacific, the ice-free Arctic will come closer to 2030 rather than later.

Temperatures in the Pacific always change frommonth to month and from year to year, but slowly developing processes cause long-term temperature shifts lasting from 10 to 30 years. These temperature shifts, known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), lead to a change in ocean temperature in the tropics of about 0.5 ° C for 10–30 years. And these changes lead to the fact that with the help of currents, warming also occurs in the neighboring Arctic Ocean and leads to ice melting.