The probability of a destructive earthquake will be estimated using friction

Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin found that by analyzing materials and friction in an area

geological fault, can be assessedthe likelihood of a strong earthquake occurring. Although this method does not accurately predict damaging seismic events, it will help identify areas at greatest risk.

The force of friction determines how quicklythe surfaces of geological faults interlock with each other or "heal" after an earthquake, the scientists explain. Those tears that heal slowly are more likely to move without dangerous consequences. On the contrary, a rapid recovery is associated with devastating earthquakes in the future.

In their study, geologists analyzedrocks from a well-studied geological fault off the coast of New Zealand. The samples were obtained by drilling at a depth of just under a kilometer under the seabed. The researchers compressed the selected rocks in a hydraulic press and found that they recovered very slowly and slipped off easily.

By loading data on the structure of rocks intocomputer model of the fault, the researchers predicted that a small, slow shaking should occur every two years. This almost exactly coincides with real seismological observations in this zone.

The same physics and logic must applyto all kinds of faults around the world. With the right samples and field observations, we can start making testable predictions about how often and how large large seismic movements on other faults might occur.

Demian Saffer, director of the University of Texas Institute of Geophysics and study co-author

Earthquake in Turkey: could it have been predicted

Read more:

It's not about the Earth: scientists explained why the solar system is the rarest

Dinosaurs in bamboo corsets were found among the artifacts of the expedition of the early twentieth century

Substance from the "grandfather's beard" improves memory and neuronal growth