The radio stream of the Sun will be predicted two years in advance so that the satellites do not collide

Scientists from Skoltech together with colleagues from the Karl and Franz University of Graz and the Observatory

Kanzelhoch (Austria), as well as from the European Space Flight Control Center, have developed a method and software that predicts the radio flux from the Sun 1-24 months in advance.

The authors note that now since 1957, whenthe first satellite was launched; there are already 41,500 tons of artificial objects in the Earth's orbit. Most objects, such as rocket bodies, large pieces of space debris, have already returned to Earth's atmosphere in an uncontrolled manner.

Therefore, work is currently underway onforecasting solar activity to estimate the time of the return of spacecraft to Earth, adjusting satellite orbits, preventing collisions, modeling space debris.

We have carried out a systematic assessment of the effectivenessoperation of the algorithm for predicting the time of return of objects into the Earth's atmosphere. The test results have shown that the forecasts of our system increase the accuracy of estimates for the return time of objects to the atmosphere. Therefore, they can be recommended as a new operational space weather service.

Elena Petrova, Master of Science at Skoltech

As a result, the authors managed to create an algorithm,allowing to accurately predict how the intensity of solar radio emission will change in the next two years. In order to predict these data, the authors used information on past manifestations of solar activity over the past 13 months.

The authors are currently working on preparing RESONANCE to create a new operational space weather service to predict the radio flux from the Sun without interruption.

Number of objects that have returned to the atmosphereEarth during the 11-year solar cycle # 24. Top panel: Radio flux from the Sun F10.7 cm. Middle panel: Payload objects and rocket bodies. Bottom panel: Space debris / © Petrova et. al., 2021

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