Modeling revealed 3.3 million COVID-19 infected in Italy

The main oddity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy is the extremely high mortality rate: if worldwide

mortality rate does not exceed 1–2.5%, in Italy every ninth dies of a new type of coronavirus.

Researchers have suggested: the reason for this is that there are actually many more cases than official statistics say. To test this hypothesis, they built a computer model in which, as input data, they used information on the number of sick and dead in Italy, Germany and on the Diamond Princess liner.

Modeling showed that in the country according to March 25, there should be not 74 thousand patients with COVID-19, but from 140 thousand to 3.3 million people.

Diamond Princess mortality datainteresting in that they are absolutely accurate - in this case, cases of the latent spread of infection are excluded. Using them and different estimates of the mortality rate of COVID-19, we showed that the number of infected people in Italy is several times higher than the current official data.

Giuseppe De Natalie, lead author of the study

Now in 180 countries there are more than 938thousand cases of infection with this infection. 90% of all cases occur in seven countries - the USA, Italy, Spain, China, Germany, France and Iran. At the same time, in China, where the virus came from, there is a significant reduction in the epidemic. In total, from the end of 2019, 47 thousand people have died from coronavirus infection, more than 194 thousand people have been cured. In Russia, there are a total of 3,548 patients with coronavirus infection, 30 patients died, 235 were cured.

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