Southern African countries have experienced severe outbreaks of COVID-19. Their citizens received relatively few vaccines:
As expected, the number of cases is declining in areas with a high percentage of people vaccinated, and, conversely, in places where people are not vaccinated against the coronavirus, new spikes are occurring.
In a new study, the authors predicted the incidence of COVID-19 cases at different rates of vaccination. This was tested on two models:
- one - with a high level of access to vaccines,
- the second is low.
The model also made it possible to connect these regions, asif they were neighbors. In this way, the dependence of epidemiological projections on various immunological parameters, for example, regional characteristics such as population size and transmission rate, as well as the factor of uneven distribution of vaccines, can be estimated.
In addition, the model took into account the possibilityre-infection or infection of an already vaccinated person: in this case, the viral load will be different compared to the usual first infection.
As a result, the model predicts that a sustained increase in the number of cases with limited vaccine availability will lead to a high potential for viral evolution.
Also previously UN Secretary GeneralAntonio Guterres said that international organizations and countries producing coronavirus vaccines must join forces to provide drugs to most of the world's population, otherwise the virus will continue to mutate.
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