What are the chances that an unguided space rocket will fall on a person? Scientists have calculated

What are the chances that a free-falling rocket will kill a single person somewhere on Earth?According to the authors of the new

According to a scientific paper published in the journal Nature Astronomy, this risk will increase in the next decade.

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According to scientists, there will be10% chance of being hit by an unguided missile (non-military). Although this is not a very big risk, in some parts of the world the threat will be much higher than in others. Thus, Latin America, Asia, Africa and Oceania will deal with a larger share of space debris, although they are not responsible for it.

Scientists say you can get rid of itunnecessary risk. When rockets are launched, they usually drop some kind of cargo - stages or parts with empty fuel tanks and engines that are no longer needed. All this, in principle, can be sent back to Earth in a controlled manner. But not everyone does this, and some parts of the rockets still remain abandoned in orbit.

To date, there have been no documented deaths from an unguided missile re-entering the atmosphere.But in 2020, debris from a Chinese missile fell on two villages in Côte d'Ivoire.