New research from the University of Washington and Harvard University provides insight into the range of thermal
“The record heat of recent years will become muchmore common in places like North America and Europe,” explains Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, lead author of the study. “For many places close to the equator, it will be difficult to work outdoors for more than six months by 2100, even if humanity begins to actively reduce emissions.”
The top panel shows the historical record“dangerous” days of the year when the heat index exceeded 39.4 °C. The left column shows the temperature range for 2050. On the right is the temperature range for the year 2100. Credit: Vargas Zeppetello et al/Communications Earth & Environment
In the study, scientists looked at a combinationair temperature and humidity - heat index. It helps measure the effect of environmental heat on the human body. According to the US National Weather Service, the "dangerous" heat index is at 39.4°C, and the "extremely dangerous" heat index is 51°C.
The top panel shows the historical record“extremely dangerous” days of the year when the heat index exceeds 51 °C. The left column shows the temperature range for 2050. On the right is the temperature range for the year 2100. Credit: Vargas Zeppetello et al/Communications Earth & Environment
Initially, these standards were created for peoplewho work in places like boiler rooms. “No one could have imagined that they would appear in the open air, in the environment. But we see them now,” emphasizes Vargas Zeppetello.
The study showed that even if countriesachieve the goal of the Paris Agreement, by 2100 dangerous heat levels will be three to ten times more common in the United States, Western Europe, China and Japan than now. And in the tropics, the number of record hot days will double and will be observed within six months.
As a reminder, the goal of the Paris Agreement is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and limit the rise in global temperature this century to 2°C.
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