It is becoming increasingly difficult to track events; sensations are replacing reports from the fronts. Where hostilities are smoldering, and where
Table of contents
- Fourth phase
- North Korean volunteers
- Activation of partisans
- World aggravation
- Freaks take their
It will soon be six months since the beginning of the conflictUkraine (I still do not enter, as it should be). And it seems to us that it’s time to shake up the good old couch analytics, since most of the well-known experts are clearly tired, or they are so wild, as they say today, cringe, lol and cake that there is no smell of logic there. And it smells only of a desire to lick the ass of the patriots in the struggle for attendance and funding.
The fact that the SVO has become routinized cannot be denied, as well as the fact that the fate of Ukraine, and also the Russians, still continues to be decided.
How the conflict changes, where it can move and what forms it can take - we will discuss in our article.
Robotic demining complex Uran-6
Gavriil Grigorov/TASS
Fourth phase
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Firstthe first weeks before withdrawal are considered the phaseRussian troops from near Kyiv, as well as Chernigov and Sumy regions. Forces concentrated on the Lugansk and Donetsk regions and to retain the southern territories.
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Secondthe phase was characterized by a long, methodical and bloody breach of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defenses in the east.
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Thirdthe phase looked like trench warfare and an exchange of missile strikes.
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Now everyone is tensely waiting for what could unfold in the south, where the parties have not been in active hostilities, but, obviously, will be soon. There are two reasons for this:
- for the Russian Federation, this is an extended and at the same time little saturated front with equipment and personnel. The greatest concern is caused by 350 km in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
A fighter of the Ukrainian territorial defense is mastering the M240 machine gun, NATO models are gradually replacing many Soviet weapons
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine were fed up with a large number of importedweapons, especially HIMARS and M270 tactical missiles, modern artillery, as well as various small things: from combat vehicles to reconnaissance drones, ammunition and rifles.
Talking about the possibility of coming soonAmerican F-16 fighters with modern missiles, which can compensate for the acute shortage of operational-tactical missiles among Ukrainians and the ability to work precisely at an operational depth (200 km or more). Deliveries of ATACMS missiles have been and remain in question.
Experts predict the coming:some - Ukrainian, others - Russian troops. Whoever is right, it is only clear that active hostilities will begin in the south with the involvement of large groups. So, it will be a new page.
In addition to modern artillery systems, Ukraine also receives a lot of older ones. However, with modern means of reconnaissance and fire adjustment, they can also be quite effective.
The fact that Ukraine needs to show positiveresults to stimulate new supplies and public opinion, obviously. It is still rather difficult to judge what goals the Russian army sets for itself. One can only judge that the front line in the south will change.
Russia concentrates most of itsunits of the Airborne Forces, which leads many experts to believe that this is a sign of an impending offensive. However, this can also mean preparing for an active defense, the only effective one in the absence of heavy fortifications, similar to Ukrainian ones in the Donbass.
North Korean volunteers
State? Yes.
On the air of the talk show, on-air expert Igor Korotchenko,declared on the rights of a certain insider that they say the DPRK is ready to transfer 100,000 volunteers to Moscow. Whether it will be directly military personnel of the army or "free shooters" is not very clear.
Apparently, these are reservists or voluntary militia
The expert mentioned “a wealth of experience incounter-battery struggle" of the North Koreans. Taking into account the fact that the last time they had a chance to engage in counter-battery combat was in 1953, the “specialists” should be about 90 years old today.
But the question is also in the experience of their use.modern artillery systems, digitalized controls for batteries and counter-battery radars. Since in the old fashioned way, by ear, they are unlikely to succeed due to senile deafness.
There were also talks about "special forces", whichNorth Koreans are really extremely hardy. Given the severity of life and food problems in this country, there, perhaps, even schoolchildren will be more resilient than the special forces of some countries. Apparently, old Kim can't wait to shake off somewhere more hungry mouths, and they don't mind eating on the Russian-Ukrainian front.
North Korean commandos
But seriously, there were rumors aboutNorth Korean workers to restore destroyed infrastructure in Russian-controlled territories. Why Pyongyang should send soldiers to an unnecessary war is not clear. Moreover, most likely, most of them would prefer to surrender in the hope of moving to Europe or the United States as refugees or political emigrants. So-so help, frankly.
Activation of partisans
In the territories controlled by the Russian Federation, attempts on representatives of the pro-Russian administration are growing. Many of them end successfully - with the death or severe injuries of the objects of the attempt.
From the very beginning, these territories operatedpro-Ukrainian activists, some promised a lot to car collaborators, but it never came to fruition. This is understandable, civilians do not have any weapons, and the most important of the possible skills is contract killing. But this is a serious operation, otherwise it is always “wet”.
© RIA Novosti / Ilya Pitalev
The sharp increase in efficiency speaks ofthe use of saboteurs from among the Armed Forces of Ukraine or the SBU. Probably, already organized groups are operating in the territories, closely interacting with the underground. Almost all of these acts take place in the south - perhaps warming up before the offensive, perhaps - an attempt to disrupt the possibilities of organizing a pro-Russian government and sabotage the imminent referendums in the territories.
World aggravation
Apparently the world is jealous, looking at the fighting in Ukraine, and is rapidly heading towards the aggravation of almost all sluggish (until now) conflicts.
- Taiwan— arrival of Congress Speaker Nancy Pelosi,the third US government leader after President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken, caused a flurry of negativity from China. In principle, we flew to Taiwan (or to Taiwan?) before, but right now it has become a marker for China.
Probably, Beijing is still going to aggravatesituation, tired of modernizing the army in vain, and wanting to finally make war. As usual, the "last Chinese warning" did not result in anything, but the country conducted large-scale exercises using operational-tactical missiles.
Japan protested, near the territorialthe waters of which splashed several Chinese missiles. China, obviously, is not afraid not only of storming the island, but also of involving all potential allies of Taiwan. We wrote about this, but so far our conclusions are being justified, although what can be surprising today when there is no smell of any logic in international relations in 2022 anymore.
Report on Chinese military exercises
- Israelresponded with heavy blows to Palestinian targetsterrorists in response to shelling of residential areas. The “Iron Dome” worked with a bang and probably warrants a separate article about it, since this system shows excellent results in those segments where other air defense systems fail.
work of the Iron Dome
- Karabakh— the Azerbaijani military is trying again and againdestabilize the situation and, despite the triumph of 2020, are not ready to be satisfied with its results and want more. Russia is abstracting itself from this conflict for now, leaving the Armenians to sort everything out themselves (well, frankly speaking, there’s no time for that). It remains to sympathize with President Pashinyan, who is stuck between three fires - Moscow, radical patriots who are dissatisfied with him, and the Azerbaijani army, with which there is absolutely nothing to compete with.
- Kosovo— we expected more, but it turned out to be borderlinetension. Kosovo Albanians continue to put pressure on the Serb minority to put local license plates on their cars. It would seem, what is the problem? The problem is that Serbia (like Kosovo itself) does not recognize such numbers and it will become impossible to enter the country from Kosovo using them.
Well, what can I say - wars often beganbecause of the nonsense, but because of the license plates have not started yet ... we'll see. But at the top, they have already clearly agreed, since Kosovo has many security guarantors - Serbia would have to fight by no means with the Kosovo police and border guards.
so far on the border
Freaks take their
Well, returning to Igor Korotchenko's statement about North Korean reinforcements.
The last weeks have been characterized by more and more radical statements by various experts and journalists calling for reprisals, executions, and the Gulag. And, what to say, to murders too.
Under the most difficult conditions in the last 30 yearstests for the country, to parasitize on marginal statements that make hype and ratings for individual characters, but monstrously reduce the international reputation of the country - almost a crime. Indeed, without the negotiation process of diplomats, no wars, conflicts, special operations can do ... even more than that, they do not end.
know comments
You will have to talk with everyone:with Europe, with the USA, and even with Ukraine. Otherwise, do not put a full stop, or at least pause. The activation of aggressive freaks works only for the radical part of the population, causing obstacles to the peace process in the Russian Federation itself.
This is how we got through the six months.